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我读2021巴菲特致股东信

小韭菜淘金   / 2021-02-28 10:50 发布

今天2021年2月27日伯克希尔哈撒韦公司发布了2020的年报虽然现在我不再持有伯克希尔的股票了但是对我来说巴菲特的股东信仍然是必读的我读完14页的股东信之后把我觉得有意思的文字摘抄了出来放在文后分享给大家推荐英文好的朋友们阅读完整版的股东信全文一定会有更直接的感触

2020年是一个非同寻常的年份经济停摆人心惶惶我仍然记得2020年5月伯克希尔的股东大会首次搬到线上没有芒格大家都坐在电脑前看着90多岁的巴菲特孤零零其实还有一两个高管坐在那里拿着一瓶可乐用最简单朴素的ppt劝告大家不要做空美国never bet against America

今年这份股东信里巴菲特几乎没有再谈论疫情看来经济确乎是复苏了今年的股东大会仍然是在线上由雅虎直播好在这次地点改在了洛杉矶查理芒格也终于可以露面了

伯克希尔拥有美国最大的铁路公司BNSF在遭受疫情重创的2020年BNSF的货物运输量只下滑了7%而利润率甚至提高了2.9%确实了不起巴菲特虽然减持了一点点苹果的股票但是仍然拥有苹果公司5.4%的股权并且被巴菲特盛赞为伯克希尔的四颗明珠之一其他三颗分别是全资拥有的保险铁路能源业务

有时候判断一个人的态度不光要看他做了什么同样要看他没做什么伯克希尔重仓的苹果公司2020年涨幅83%而巴菲特只是减持了一点点却保留了绝大部分的股权尽管略有卖出但是因为苹果的回购现在伯克希尔的苹果股权甚至超过了2018年建仓完毕时的5.2%面对高涨的股价巴菲特几乎没有卖出苹果这就是他的选择

这封股东信就像以前的每一封信一样充满了诚实负责和谦逊让读者平静放心甚至感动巴菲特做完概述之后首先就详细分析了自己犯的错误高价买入PCC公司而且直言PCC的管理层做得非常好犯错的不是他们而是巴菲特自己

巴菲特用很长的篇幅介绍其实是重申伯克希尔的合伙人文化我能看出他对投资人的信任非常珍视巴菲特从刚开始管理基金的时候就承诺要把客户的钱当作自己的钱一样看待他确实是这么做的而且一做就是一辈子这就是我最尊敬巴菲特的地方——不是他过人的智慧更不是巨额的财富而是坦诚本分踏实谦逊真诚负责的为人我不止一次说过价值投资不只是一个投资的方法论更是一套完整的价值观知行合一本分诚实绝不仅仅是在股票交易上而是在为人处事的方方面面证券从业者都知道一个词——受托人责任(fiduciary duty)巴菲特就是这个词最好的注脚


以下为我自己摘选的原文以及在Deepl机器翻译的基础上略作调整的中文翻译

- No one misled me in any way – I was simply too optimistic about PCC's normalized profit potential. Last year, my miscalculation was laid bare by adverse developments throughout the aerospace industry, PCC's most important source of customers.

没有人在任何方面误导我——我只是对PCC的正常化利润潜力过于乐观去年整个航空航天业的困局证明了我的错误而航空航天业是PCC最重要的客户来源

- I believe I was right in concluding that PCC would, over time, earn good returns on the net tangible assets deployed in its operations. I was wrong, however, in judging the average amount of future earnings and, consequently, wrong in my calculation of the proper price to pay for the business.

PCC is far from my first error of that sort. But it's a big one.

我相信我的结论是正确的即随着时间的推移PCC在其业务中部署的有形资产净值将获得良好的回报然而我在判断未来收益的平均数额时却犯了错误因此我在计算该业务的合理价格时也犯了错误

PCC远不是我第一次犯这样的错误但这是一个很大的错误

- "Investing illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time. Wall Street loves the fees that deal-making generates, and the press loves the stories that colorful promoters provide. At a point, also, the soaring price of a promoted stock can itself become the 'proof' that an illusion is reality."

投资幻想可以持续令人惊讶的长时间华尔街喜欢交易带来的费用媒体喜欢卖方的精彩炫酷的故事在某一时刻被推销的股票价格的飙升本身也会成为幻想是现实的证据

- Eventually, of course, the party ends, and many business emperors are found to have no clothes. Financial history is replete with the names of famous conglomerateurs who were initially lionized as business geniuses by journalists, analysts and investment bankers, but whose creations ended up as business junkyards.

当然聚会最终会结束而许多商业 "皇帝 "会被人发现他们其实根本没穿衣服金融史上充斥着一些著名的企业主的名字他们曾经被记者分析师和投资银行家誉为商业天才但他们的创造最终成为商业垃圾场

- Risky loans, however, are not the answer to inadequate interest rates.

然而高收益债券垃圾债并不能解决低利率的问题

- The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time. The process offers a simple way for investors to own an ever-expanding portion of exceptional businesses.

回购的影响积累得很慢但随着时间的推移可以发挥强大的作用这个过程为投资者提供了一个简单的方法使他们能够拥有不断扩大的优秀企业的一部分

- Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.

我们从不动摇的观点永远不要做空美国

- Neither of us had any institutional investors, and very few of our partners were financially sophisticated. The people who joined our ventures simply trusted us to treat their money as we treated our own. These individuals – either intuitively or by relying on the advice of friends – correctly concluded that Charlie and I had an extreme aversion to permanent loss of capital and that we would not have accepted their money unless we expected to do reasonably well with it.

我们没有任何机构投资者我们的合作伙伴中也很少有财力雄厚的人加入我们企业的人只是相信我们会像对待自己的钱一样对待他们的钱这些人——无论是凭直觉还是依靠朋友的建议--都正确地断定查理和我对资本的永久性损失极为反感除非我们认为我们可以把这些钱用得相当好否则我们不会接受他们的钱

- Therefore, the 1983 annual report - up front - laid out Berkshire's major business principles. The first principle began: Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership. That defined our relationship in 1983; it defines it today. Charlie and I – and our directors as well – believe this dictum will serve Berkshire well for many decades to come.

因此在1983年度报告的最前面我们提出了伯克希尔的 "主要经营原则"第一条原则是这样写的"虽然我们的形式是企业但我们的态度是合作关系" 这句话在1983年定义了我们的关系它今天也同样成立查理和我还有我们的董事们相信这句话仍将在未来的几十年里为伯克希尔服务

- All of that said, Charlie and I would be less than human if we did not feel a special kinship with our fifth bucket: the million-plus individual investors who simply trust us to represent their interests, whatever the future may bring. They have joined us with no intent to leave, adopting a mindset similar to that held by our original partners. Indeed, many investors from our partnership years, and/or their descendants, remain substantial owners of Berkshire.

说到这里查理和我如果不对我们的第五个投资者群体感到特别的亲切那我们就不是人了那就是一百多万个人投资者他们只是相信无论未来会发生什么我们都能代表他们的利益他们加入我们后并没有离开的打算采取的心态与我们原来的合伙人类似事实上许多我们合伙时期的投资者和/或他们的后代仍然是伯克希尔公司的重要所有者

- Could it be that Berkshire ownership fosters longevity?

难道是伯克希尔的所有权培养了长寿

- When seats open up at Berkshire - and we hope they are few - we want them to be occupied by newcomers who understand and desire what we offer. After decades of management, Charlie and I remain unable to promise results. We can and do, however, pledge to treat you as partners.

And so, too, will our successors.

当伯克希尔出现空位时——我们希望空位不多——我们希望这些空位被那些了解并渴望我们提供的服务的新人所拥有经过几十年的管理查理和我仍然无法承诺结果但是我们可以也确实承诺把你们当作合作伙伴

我们的继任者也将如此。(来自:愚钝博士 )