中金公司：2016年A股市场展望：穷则思变

牛牛选股 / 2015-11-09 11:29 发布

网页链接%3Bfont-family%3A%27sans+serif%27%2C+tahoma%2C+verdana%2C+helvetica%3Bfont-size%3A14px%3Bfont-style%3Anormal%3Bfont-weight%3Anormal%3Bline-height%3A21px%3B%22%3E%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B+2016%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%B9%B4%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B%EF%BC%9A%E7%A9%B7%E5%88%99%E6%80%9D%E5%8F%98%EF%BC%8C%E7%8C%B4%E5%B9%B4%E7%8C%B4%E5%B8%82%3C%2Fspan%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3E%0A%3Cspan+style%3D%22color%3A>#000000;font-family:'sans serif', tahoma, verdana, helvetica;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;line-height:21px;">2016  年展望：穷则思变，猴年猴市
        与预期2014  年市场绝地反转及2015  年利率下行带来“股债双牛”相比，站在2015  年年底看2016  年的中国市场，市场前景展望并不像前两年那样清晰。网页链接%3Bfont-family%3A%27sans+serif%27%2C+tahoma%2C+verdana%2C+helvetica%3Bfont-size%3A14px%3Bfont-style%3Anormal%3Bfont-weight%3Anormal%3Bline-height%3A21px%3B%22%3E%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E8%AE%A4%E4%B8%BA%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%E5%9C%A8%E4%BA%8E%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%EF%BC%8C%E5%81%9A%E5%87%BA%E8%BF%99%E6%A0%B7%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A4%E6%96%AD%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E5%9C%A8%E4%BA%8E%EF%BC%9A%3C%2Fspan%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3E%0A%3Cspan+style%3D%22color%3A>#000000;font-family:'sans serif', tahoma, verdana, helvetica;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;line-height:21px;">综合来看，我们认为市场重点在于阶段性及结构性机会，做出这样的判断原因在于：
        1）  宏观增长稳中偏弱，无风险利率被迫维持低位：外需缺乏亮点、内需中地产相比2015  年可能有所走弱，宏观依然面临稳增长压力，流动性有望继续宽松但并不超预期。网页链接%3Bfont-family%3A%27sans+serif%27%2C+tahoma%2C+verdana%2C+helvetica%3Bfont-size%3A14px%3Bfont-style%3Anormal%3Bfont-weight%3Anormal%3Bline-height%3A21px%3B%22%3E%E4%B8%AD%E9%87%91%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E7%BB%84%E9%A2%84%E8%AE%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%B0%86%E7%BB%A7%E7%BB%AD%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF%E5%B9%B6%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E9%99%8D%E5%87%86%EF%BC%8C%E5%8A%9B%E5%9B%BE%E7%BB%B4%E6%8C%81%E6%B1%87%E7%8E%87%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A%EF%BC%8C2016%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%B9%B4GDP%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF6.8%25%E3%80%82%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88%E5%85%B6%E4%BB%96%E5%81%87%E8%AE%BE%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E9%A2%84%E8%AE%A1A%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E8%82%A1%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9%E6%B8%A9%E5%92%8C%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E7%BA%A64%25%E5%B7%A6%E5%8F%B3%EF%BC%88%E5%85%B6%E4%B8%AD%E9%9D%9E%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D9.8%25%EF%BC%89%E3%80%82%3C%2Fspan%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3E%0A%3Cspan+style%3D%22color%3A>#000000;font-family:'sans serif', tahoma, verdana, helvetica;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;line-height:21px;">中金宏观组预计政府将继续降息并大幅降准，力图维持汇率稳定，2016  年GDP  增长6.8%。综合其他假设，我们预计A  股盈利温和增长约4%左右（其中非金融9.8%）。
        2）  “穷则思变”，增长压力将加大周期性政策继续放松以及结构性改革的紧迫性，与增长及改革相关的市场预期变化将带来风险溢价阶段性上升及下降。财政政策有望加码，而改革进程，包括国企、财税、开放、服务业、人口政策及户籍土地等方面有望继续推进。
网页链接%3Bfont-family%3A%27sans+serif%27%2C+tahoma%2C+verdana%2C+helvetica%3Bfont-size%3A14px%3Bfont-style%3Anormal%3Bfont-weight%3Anormal%3Bline-height%3A21px%3B%22%3E%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%BD%93%E5%89%8DA%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E8%82%A1%E6%B2%AA%E6%B7%B1300%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC11.5%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%80%8D%E5%89%8D%E5%90%91%E5%B8%82%E7%9B%88%E7%8E%87%EF%BC%88%E9%9D%9E%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D19%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%80%8D%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%8C%E5%88%9B%E4%B8%9A%E6%9D%BFTTM%E5%B8%82%E7%9B%88%E7%8E%8774%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%80%8D%EF%BC%8C%E5%AF%B9%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%BD%E6%9D%BE%E5%B7%B2%E7%BB%8F%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E3%80%82%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E8%A1%8C%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E4%BD%8E%E4%BA%8E%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E3%80%81%E6%B1%87%E7%8E%87%E5%8F%8A%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%8B%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E6%B5%81%E5%87%BA%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E3%80%81%E5%9C%B0%E7%BC%98%E6%94%BF%E6%B2%BB%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%AD%89%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8A%E8%A1%8C%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E5%9C%A8%E4%BA%8E%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AF%B9%E4%BA%8E%E8%B6%85%E4%BD%8E%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94%E3%80%81%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%B9%8B%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%9D%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E6%88%96%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%8A%9B%E5%BA%A6%E8%B6%85%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E3%80%82%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E8%8A%82%E5%A5%8F%E5%92%8C%E6%B3%A2%E6%AE%B5%E9%9C%80%E8%A7%86%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E3%80%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E4%B8%8E%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8%E7%AD%89%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88%E5%88%A4%E5%AE%9A%EF%BC%8C%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E5%B7%B2%E7%BB%8F%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E5%B9%85%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E5%BC%B9%EF%BC%8C%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E7%96%B2%E5%BC%B1%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%86%E7%A8%B3%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E4%B9%9F%E6%9C%89%E5%8A%A0%E7%A0%81%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%BF%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%BB%E4%BD%93%E6%B0%9B%E5%9B%B4%E6%9A%82%E6%97%B6%E7%9B%B8%E5%AF%B9%E5%B9%B3%E7%A8%B3%E3%80%82%3C%2Fspan%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3E%0A%3Cspan+style%3D%22color%3A>#000000;font-family:'sans serif', tahoma, verdana, helvetica;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;line-height:21px;">        当前A  股沪深300  估值11.5  倍前向市盈率（非金融19  倍），创业板TTM市盈率74  倍，对资金面的宽松已经有一定预期。主要的下行风险包括增长低于预期、信用风险、汇率及与之相关的资金流出风险、地缘政治风险等，主要的上行风险在于经济对于超低利率的反应、增长压力之下的保增长或改革力度超预期。市场节奏和波段需视增长预期、政策与改革作用等因素综合判定，目前市场已经有一定幅度的反弹，经济增长疲弱，但稳增长政策也有加码之势，总体氛围暂时相对平稳。
       网页链接%3B%22%3E%26nbsp%3B%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E9%85%8D%E8%87%B5%E6%80%9D%E8%B7%AF%EF%BC%9A%E8%87%AA%E4%B8%8B%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8A%EF%BC%8C%E5%AE%88%E6%AD%A3%E5%87%BA%E5%A5%87%3C%2Fspan%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3E%0A%3Cspan+style%3D%22color%3A>#E53333;"> 行业配臵思路：自下而上，守正出奇
        考虑到较低的资金成本及偏弱的宏观背景，2016  行业配臵策略要注重自下而上、守正出奇：1）自下而上：在新老经济板块对资金利率及各自前景均有所反应和预期的情况下，自下而上的方法更能够帮助避开陷阱、发现局部和阶段性的亮点；2）“守正”：在老经济与新经济板块中都需要坚守价值，寻找有增长、估值合理的板块和个股；3）“出奇”：资金面的整体宽松使得阶段性、局部性的投资主题较为活跃。

网页链接%3Bfont-family%3A%27sans+serif%27%2C+tahoma%2C+verdana%2C+helvetica%3Bfont-size%3A14px%3Bfont-style%3Anormal%3Bfont-weight%3Anormal%3Btext-align%3Astart%3Btext-indent%3A0px%3B%22%3E%0A%09%26nbsp%3B+%26nbsp%3B+%26nbsp%3B+%26nbsp%3B%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E3%80%81%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%E3%80%81%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9%E5%8F%8A%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%8A%A8%E6%80%81%E3%80%81%E6%9C%BA%E6%9E%84%E4%BB%93%E4%BD%8D%E7%AD%89%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE%E8%B6%85%E9%85%8D%E4%B8%A4%E7%B1%BB%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%EF%BC%9A1%EF%BC%89%E5%9C%A8%E8%BE%83%E5%BC%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E4%B9%8B%E4%B8%8B%E4%BB%8D%E8%83%BD%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%94%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E7%9B%B8%E5%AF%B9%E5%90%88%E7%90%86%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%EF%BC%8C%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%A5%AE%E6%96%99%E3%80%81%E8%BD%BB%E5%B7%A5%E5%88%B6%E9%80%A0%E3%80%81%E4%BC%A0%E5%AA%92%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E3%80%81%E5%8C%BB%E7%96%97%E4%BF%9D%E5%81%A5%E5%8F%8A%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E7%AD%89%E6%9D%BF%E5%9D%97%EF%BC%9B2%EF%BC%89%E6%9C%89%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E6%88%96%E8%80%85%E8%BE%B9%E9%99%85%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%BC%9A%E6%9C%89%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E5%81%8F%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E6%80%A7%E6%9D%BF%E5%9D%97%EF%BC%8C%E5%A6%82%E6%96%B0%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E4%B8%8E%E7%94%B5%E5%8A%9B%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E3%80%81%E7%8E%AF%E4%BF%9D%E3%80%81%E5%85%AC%E8%B7%AF%E9%93%81%E8%B7%AF%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%81%E7%AD%89%EF%BC%9B%E7%9B%B8%E5%AF%B9%E4%BD%8E%E9%85%8D%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%B0%9A%E4%B8%8D%E4%BE%BF%E5%AE%9C%E3%80%81%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E6%97%A0%E8%B5%B7%E8%89%B2%E7%9A%84%E5%81%8F%E4%B8%8A%E6%B8%B8%E6%9D%BF%E5%9D%97%EF%BC%8C%E5%8F%8A%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6%E6%9D%BF%E5%9D%97%E3%80%82%E5%8F%A6%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E9%A2%84%E8%AE%A1%E5%8F%97%E7%9B%B8%E5%AF%B9%E4%BD%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%BB%E9%A2%98%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E4%BB%8D%E7%84%B6%E8%BF%98%E4%BC%9A%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E6%80%A7%E6%B4%BB%E8%B7%83%E3%80%82%E7%BB%93%E5%90%88%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF%EF%BC%88%E6%96%B0%E8%80%81%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E4%BB%8D%E5%9C%A8%E7%BB%A7%E7%BB%AD%E3%80%81%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%A0%E6%AF%94%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%BB%8D%E5%9C%A8%E6%89%A9%E5%A4%A7%EF%BC%89%E3%80%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%88%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%8F%91%E5%8A%9B%E5%B1%80%E9%83%A8%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E4%BF%9D%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%EF%BC%89%E3%80%81%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%A8%E5%90%91%EF%BC%88%E5%9B%BD%E4%BC%81%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E7%AD%89%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E4%BB%8D%E5%9C%A8%E6%8E%A8%E8%BF%9B%EF%BC%89%E3%80%81%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E5%8F%8A%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E7%AD%9B%E9%80%89%E4%BA%86%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E5%9C%A82016%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%E5%B9%B4%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E6%80%A7%E6%B4%BB%E8%B7%83%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%BB%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%EF%BC%9A%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E3%80%81%E5%9B%BD%E4%BC%81%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E3%80%81%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E3%80%81%E7%8E%AF%E4%BF%9D%E4%B8%8E%E6%96%B0%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E3%80%81%E4%BA%91%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E4%B8%8E%E6%97%A0%E7%BA%BF%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E3%80%81%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E3%80%81%E8%99%9A%E6%8B%9F%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E%E3%80%81%E5%8A%A8%E7%94%BB%E4%B8%8E%E6%BC%AB%E7%94%BB%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E3%80%81%E6%96%87%E6%95%99%E4%BD%93%E8%82%B2%E7%AD%89%E3%80%82%3Cbr+%2F%3E%0A%3Cimg+src%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sjqcj.com%2Fdata%2Fupload%2F2015%2F1109%2F11%2F5640129bde434.jpg%22+alt%3D%22%22+style%3D%22border%3A0px%3B%22+%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cbr+class%3D%22Apple-interchange-newline%22+%2F%3E++++++++++++++++%3C%2Fdiv%3E%0A++++++++++++%3C%2Fdiv%3E%0A++++++++++++%3Cdiv%3E%0A++++++++++++++++%3Ca+href%3D%22javascript%3Avoid%280%29%3B%22+onclick%3D%22%24%28%27>#000000;font-family:'sans serif', tahoma, verdana, helvetica;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;"> 综合最新的宏观环境、行业进展、盈利及估值动态、机构仓位等因素，我们建议超配两类行业：1）在较弱的宏观背景之下仍能实现增长，且估值相对合理的大消费、大健康相关行业，包括食品饮料、轻工制造、传媒互联网、医疗保健及保险等板块；2）有政策支持或者边际上可能会有变化的偏周期性板块，如新能源与电力设备、环保、公路铁路物流等；相对低配估值尚不便宜、盈利增长无起色的偏上游板块，及科技硬件板块。另外，我们预计受相对低的资金成本驱动，主题性的投资机会仍然还会阶段性活跃。结合中国经济结构性的变化趋势（新老经济结构的调整仍在继续、服务业占比可能仍在扩大）、政策变化（政策发力局部领域保增长）、改革的动向（国企改革等改革仍在推进）、科技行业的周期及趋势，我们筛选了可能在2016 年阶段性活跃的十大投资主题，主要包括：价格改革、国企改革、金融开放、环保与新能源、云计算大数据与无线互联网、人工智能、虚拟现实、动画与漫画、大健康、文教体育等。

赞 | 评论 2015-11-09 11:29 来自网站举报

取消发布

推荐关注更多

中金公司：2016年A股市场展望：穷则思变